Agile Dynamics Simulator
Making agile sprint risk visible, one Monte Carlo run at a time.
- Built a Python simulation modelling how changes in team capacity and risk events affect sprint delivery, running 20 scenarios across 1,000 Monte Carlo simulated sprints.
- Found risk level cut sprint completion by 18 percentage points (100%→82%), while capacity variation had negligible independent effect.
- Translated findings into recommendations for 2-week sprint cadences, prioritising risk mitigation over capacity buffering, and probabilistic (P10/P50/P90) sprint forecasting.
- Benchmarked Jira against SimSE across five criteria, showing neither tool models risk the way real teams need to plan sprints.
